Global Security Newswire, with comments by NPSGlobal, 17 Nov 2011.

IAEA’s board of governors is meeting in Vienna to discuss the results on the safeguards assessment report on Iran, where there are clear references on nuclear-weapons activities.

It was unclear, however, if the U.N. Security Council member nations would achieve consensus on a measure for the U.N. organization's governing board to potentially adopt at its two-day meeting scheduled for Thursday and Friday.

Iran, even though it has signed the non proliferation treaty, has a consistent history of undeclared sites and obstructing the safeguard assessment process.

The safeguards assessment from IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano expresses "serious concerns" that Iran is secretly moving to establish a nuclear-weapon capability. Iran has consistently denied assertions that its nuclear program is geared toward weapons development.

The five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany are fervently pursuing a unified response to a new International Atomic Energy Agency report pointing to possible nuclear-weapon activities in Iran, Western nation envoys told Reuters.

It is unclear if consensus will come between them for the board to adopt any measures on this meeting.
One Western diplomatic official suggested that the six powers -- China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- had "more than an even chance" of achieving consensus on a draft measure for submission to the 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors.

There is optimism on that. Western powers had to decide whether to seek sterner language in the measure and hazard Beijing or Moscow potentially refusing to endorse it. Some observers fear Israel could take military action against Iranian nuclear facilities if the six governments cannot act in concert to pressure Tehran to join substantive nuclear talks, according to Reuters.

Russian and Chinese misgivings would probably prevent the IAEA governing board from again sending the nuclear dispute to the U.N. Security Council or making a similarly decisive move, according to envoys.

The measure is anticipated to urge Iran to respond to matters noted in the safeguards document, one Western diplomat added.

"I think we will get to a point where it (the text) is manageable to all of us," the official said (Dahl/Westall, Reuters I).
Iran is preparing an in-depth refutation of the IAEA document's findings, the Associated Press quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi as saying on Iranian television on Wednesday. Tehran has contended the report relies on "fabrications" from U.S. and Israeli intelligence services (Associated Press).

Iran's legislature intends next week to formally review Tehran's work with the U.N. nuclear watchdog in response to the safeguards assessment, Iran's Fars News Agency reported (Fars News Agency).

Meanwhile, the Obama administration on Tuesday indicated it had not ruled out potential penalties targeting Iran's central bank, Agence France-Presse reported. "That proposal or idea has not been abandoned. It's very much on the table as are all options that we could take that would credibly and meaningfully impact Iran," said Adam Szubin, head of the Treasury Department's of Foreign Assets Control Office.

The option was still being assessed for its potential impact on petroleum prices, Szubin told a House of Representatives panel.
"If there's a spike in the price of oil, Iran could be facing a windfall," Szubin said, referring to "plausible scenarios in which there could be profound harm to the global economic recovery and a windfall to Iran."

Any measure targeting ordinary individuals in an effort to strain the country's leadership might result in consternation among younger Iranians who "think very favorably of the United States," Acting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Henry Wooster warned.

"We need to be careful in a lot of what we do to make sure that we're, you know, not alienating a group of individuals that we want to work with and have (a) relationship with over the long term as long as they can stop being held hostage by their government," Wooster said.
"In terms of a tipping point, I can't offer you an exact point on the curve where that is located. But there is (one)," the official said.
Acknowledging that Chinese companies are undermining penalties against Iran by filling in for Western groups ending business with the country, Wooster said "there just aren't easy responses to that."

"To date, we can report that what we are seeing is satisfactory. We continue to keep an eye on it. We continue to discuss it" with Beijing, he said (Agence France-Presse).

Elsewhere, Russia and France have "discussed in detail the situation around Iran's nuclear program in the light of the report on the subject, circulated on Nov. 8 by the IAEA director-general," ITAR-Tass quoted the Russian Foreign Ministry as saying on Tuesday (ITAR-Tass).

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